Bitcoin (BTC) finished the month of November with a decline of about 7%. This was in sharp contrast to the prediction of the “worst-case scenario” of $98,000 by PlanB, the creator of the popular stock-to-flow model. Although the analyst described it as a “big miss”, he said he would give the Floor model one more month.
In its latest “Week On-Chain” report, Glassnode analysts said that Bitcoin’s correction in November was the “least severe in 2021.” Analysts now expect Bitcoin to witness a Santa rally, similar to the 47% up-move in December 2020 or the sharper 80% surge that occurred in December of 2017.
In another positive news for Bitcoin bulls, Bloomberg senior exchange-traded fund (ETF) analyst Eric Balchunas said that “Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF” was awaiting regulatory approval to be listed on a Canadian exchange. If that happens, Fidelity would become the largest management company to offer a spot-based Bitcoin ETF.
Can bulls sustain the current momentum after starting December on a strong footing? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin has been clinging to the 20-day exponential moving average ($58,463) for the past two days. This suggests that bears are defending the 20-day EMA but the bulls have not ceded much ground.
The buyers are again attempting to drive the price above the 20-day EMA today. If they succeed, it will indicate that the selling pressure may be reducing. The BTC/USDT pair could then rise to the 50-day simple moving average ($60,828).
This is a critical level for the bears to defend because a break above it will clear the path for a rally to the overhead resistance zone at $67,000 to $69,000.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level or the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that traders are selling on rallies. The pair could then again drop to the 100-day SMA ($54,343). A break and close below $53,256.64 could start a deeper correction.
Ether (ETH) broke and closed above the resistance at $4,551 on Nov. 30. Sustained buying today has pushed the price near the all-time high at $4,868.
The 20-day EMA ($4,380) has started to turn up and the relative strength index (RSI) has risen into the positive zone, suggesting that bulls are back in control. If bulls thrust the price above $4,868, it will invalidate the prospective head and shoulders (H&S) pattern.
The ETH/USDT pair could then start its northward march toward the target objective at $5,796. Conversely, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the bears will attempt to sink the pair below the 50-day SMA ($4,289). If they do that, the pair could decline to $4,000.
Binance Coin (BNB) once again bounced off the 20-day EMA ($602) on Nov. 30 indicating that sentiment remains positive and traders are accumulating on dips.
The BNB/USDT pair could now rally to the overhead resistance at $669.30. A break and close above this resistance could complete the inverse H&S pattern, which has a target objective at $828.60.
The all-time high at $691.80 may offer resistance but if bulls clear this hurdle, the pair could start its journey toward the pattern target.
If the price turns down from $669.30, the bears will again try to pull and sustain the pair below the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair may slide to the 50-day SMA ($559).
Solana (SOL) rose above the 20-day EMA ($213) on Nov. 30 but the long wick on the candlestick showed selling at higher levels. The bulls resumed their purchase today and have pushed the price to the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle.
A breakout and close above the triangle will indicate that the uncertainty among the bulls and the bears has resolved to the upside. The SOL/USDT pair could first rally to $240 and then retest the all-time high at $259.90. The pattern target of this setup is $310.96.
If bulls fail to sustain the price above the resistance line, it will indicate that bears continue to sell on rallies. The bears will have to sink and sustain the price below the triangle to indicate the formation of a short-term top.
Cardano (ADA) turned down on Nov. 30 but the bulls purchased this dip and are attempting to resume the relief rally today. If buyers drive the price above $1.63, the recovery could reach the 20-day EMA ($1.74) where the bears may again try to pose a stiff challenge.
The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative zone suggest that bears have the upper hand. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will again attempt to resume the downtrend. The bearish momentum could pick up on a break below $1.40.
Alternatively, if bulls drive the price above the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the selling pressure may be reducing. The ADA/USDT pair could then rise to the breakdown level at $1.87 and later to the 50-day SMA ($1.96).
XRP’s rebound off the strong support at $0.85 is facing resistance at the 20-day EMA ($1.04) as seen from the long wick on the Nov. 30 candlestick. A minor positive is that bulls are not giving up much ground.
If the price clings close to the psychological level at $1, the bulls will make one more attempt to clear the overhead barrier. A break and close above the moving averages may signal that the XRP/USDT pair could remain stuck between $0.85 and $1.41.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that traders are selling on rallies near overhead resistance levels. The selling could accelerate on a break and close below $0.85. The pair could then slide to $0.70
Polkadot (DOT) rebounded off $32.21 on Nov. 28 and reached the neckline of the H&S pattern. The downsloping 20-day EMA ($40) and the RSI below 43 suggest bears have the upper hand.
If the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the bears will attempt to sink the DOT/USDT pair below $32.21. If they manage to do that, the selling could intensify and the pair may drop to $26.
This bearish view will be negated if the price breaks and closes above the 20-day EMA. Such a move could open the doors for a relief rally to the 50-day SMA ($43.63). If bulls clear this hurdle, the up-move may extend to $49.78.
The long wick on Dogecoin’s (DOGE) candlestick of the past two days shows that bears are defending the 20-day EMA ($0.22). This indicates that sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.
The bears will now try to pull the price to $0.19. A break and close below this support could result in a drop to the critical level at $0.15. The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory suggest the path of least resistance is to the downside.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price rises from the current level or the support at $0.19 and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will signal that traders are accumulating on dips. The DOGE/USDT pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.24). The bullish momentum may pick up above this level.
Avalanche (AVAX) formed a Doji candlestick pattern on Nov. 30 indicating uncertainty among the bulls and the bears. This indecision resolved to the upside today as bulls pushed the price higher.
The AVAX/USDT pair is likely to face stiff resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $129.26. If the price turns down from this resistance, the bears will make one more attempt to pull the price below the 20-day EMA ($110).
If they manage to do that, the pair could drop to the psychological level at $100. A break and close below this support could signal a change in the short-term trend.
On the contrary, if bulls drive the price above $129.26, the pair could rise to $137.06 and then challenge the all-time high at $147.
SHIBA INU (SHIB) climbed back above the breakdown level at $0.000040 on Nov. 29. This may have trapped the bears who rushed to cover their short positions. This pushed the price to $0.000054 on Nov. 30 but the long wick on the candlestick indicates a lack of demand at higher levels.
The 20-day EMA ($0.000045) has flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a possible range-bound action in the short term. The SHIB/USDT pair could trade between $0.000035 and $0.000054 for a few days.
If the price breaks and sustains below the 20-day EMA, the pair could gradually drop to $0.000035. Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will attempt to push the pair above $0.000054. If they succeed, the pair could rally to $0.000065.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.